Q1 Market Report - Fawnskin
Fawnskin Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear Fawnskin Market into two segments - Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary.
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Fawnskin area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Fawnskin Area, the first quarter of 2022 continued with price increases that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out as the average price of $358,000 in January of 2020, has brought us to an average price of $682,000 in March of 2022. A total increase of $324,000. Which is a nice increase. When compared to the Big Three of Total Big Bear Valley coming in at an overall increase of $215,000 with a March 2022 average price of $534,000 and Big Bear Lake Area coming in at an overall increase of $187,000 with a March 2022 average price of $622,000, and Big Bear City coming in at an overall increase of $310,000 with a March 2022 average price of $535,000. We can see that at $682,000 for 3/22 the Fawnskin Area has a higher average price than The Big Three and with an increase in price of $324,000 for the time period.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Fawnskin area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range of $0 - $800,000 from January 2020 to March of 2022.
The graph below shows us that one of the reasons for the increase in prices we have enjoyed the last 2 years is that the inventory of listings is down, especially from last year at this time which was a record low. This quarter we had 11 listings for the quarter with 9 sales while last year we had 25 listings with 8 sales in the first quarter. Compare the last two years with 2020 first quarter of 57 listings and you can see why the listing shortages have had such influence to the large price increases the last two years.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for the Fawnskin area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Fawnskin Area the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter stayed strong in price increases and sales. If we had more listings we would have had more sales. For vacation homes this is very impressive market. When we compare Fawnskin to; The Big Three areas of; Big Bear Lake, the Total Big Bear Valley and Big Bear City, Fawnskin comes out ahead of The Big Three in highest average price for 3/22 and biggest gain in price for 1/20 - 3/22. Also if you take all the sub areas in Big Bear Fawnskin has the biggest gain in price and is second only to the Fox Farm area in average price for 3/22.
The first quarter stayed with the over heated market, but we now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market.
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong proven marketing background.
PRICE RANGE - $800,000 and Up
The luxury market in Fawnskin has such a small amount of sales statistically there isn't enough turn over to give us accurate information. In 2020 there was 4 sales, in 2021 there were only 11 sales. And the first quarter of 2022 we have 2 sales. Which is not enough to give us good statistical data. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit. To get an understand of the overall luxury market in Big Bear read, Big Bear Luxury Market Trends.
I printed the graphs below if you want to see them. If you have a property that you feel should sell for over $800,000 contact me for a custom analysis on that property.
Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market which should be a balance between the market of a few years ago and the one that we have had the past two years. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. But we will have sales every month and not go back to a stagnate market where we would not have sales for several months. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong proven marketing background.
