Q1 Market Report - Under 800k
Total Big Bear Valley Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Total Big Bear Market into two segments - Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary.
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Total Big Bear Valley on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Total Big Bear Valley Area, the first quarter of 2022 continued with price increases that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out as the average price of $319,000 in January of 2020, has brought us to an average price of $534,000 in March of 2022. A total increase of $215,000. Which is a nice increase. When compared to the other two markets of The Big Three, the Big Bear Lake Area coming in at an overall increase of $187,000 with a March 2022 average price of $622,000, and Big Bear City coming in at an overall increase of $310,000 with a March 2022 average price of $535,000. We can see that the Total Big Bear Valley Area has a higher average price than The Big Three and an increase in price that brings it in second among The Big Three.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Valley on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range of $0 - $800,000 from January 2020 to March of 2022.
The graph below shows us that one of the reasons for the increase in prices we have enjoyed the last 2 years is that the inventory of listings is down, especially from last year at this time which was a record low. This quarter we had 573 listings for the quarter with 234 sales while last year we had 698 listings with 335 sales in the first quarter. Compare the last two years with 2020 first quarter of 1296 listings and you can see why the listing shortages have had such influence to the large price increases the last two years.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for the Total Big Bear Valley Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Total Big Bear Valley Area the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter stayed strong in price increases and sales. If we had more listings we would have had more sales. For vacation homes this is very impressive market. In the 0-$800,000 market when we compare The Big Three areas of Big Bear Lake, the Total Big Bear Valley and Big Bear City, what becomes evident is that the Total Big Bear Valley Area came out second with price increases of $215,000, but was close to Big Bear Lake at $187,000 and a good distance from the leader Big Bear City with and increase of $310,000.
The first quarter stayed with the over heated market, but we now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market.
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong proven marketing background.