Q1 Total Area Market Report
Total Big Bear Area Market Trends
Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables made from three year graphs, for the Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas. Using the tables and graphs I will report the trends of Market Prices, Sales vs Active Listings, and Expired Listings and summarize what they mean to the current and future Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas Real Estate Markets. This section is for the Total Big Bear Area. The following analysis is a detailed but easy to understand examination of these market trends.
The following stats have 2 sections. Section 1 up to $800,000 property value and Section 2 $800,000 and up, (the Luxury Market). This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Total Big Bear Area, you can skip to the bottom of Section 1 and Section 2 and read the Overall Summary.
Section 1 notes: the Castle Glen, Eagle Knolls and Eagle Point/Eagle Point Estates Areas are not included in section 1 stats due to the fact that there aren’t any sales under $800,000 in these areas.
Section 2 notes: the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 And up Luxury Market.
Section 1 up to $800,000
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends Surprisingly, the 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $489,000 was up $10,000 from the 2023 fourth quarter average monthly price of $479,000.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $489,000 was up $11,333 from the 2023 first quarter average monthly price of $477,667.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $489,000 was down $12,667 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $501,667.
Area Ranking The numbers below show you how the Total Big Bear Area compares to the 7 sub areas this quarter.
Total Big Bear Area $489,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fox Farm $665,667
Moonridge Area $617,667
Big Bear Lake Area $572,667
Lake Front Area $531,333
Fawnskin Area $504,500
Big Bear City $461,667
Snow Summit Area $422,500
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices in a major negative way with prices up $10,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are up $11,333. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are down $12,667. Until we see a change from interest rates or a increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range. contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The first quarter of 2023 had average monthly sales of 47 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 49 per month for the fourth quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 277 which is 62 per month less when compared to the 339 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2023.
1 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 47 per month. Which was a decrease of 1 sale per month when compared to the sales of 48 per month in the first quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 277 which is 55 per month more when compared to the 222 average number of listings for the first quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 47 per month. Which was a decrease of 43 sales per month when compared to the sales of 91 per month in the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 277 which is 89 per month more when compared to the 188 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have had a slight negative affected on sales and listings with sales down 2 and listings down 62. And when compared to 1 year ago sales are down 1 and listings are up 55. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 43 and listings are up 89. Until we see a change from interest rates or buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Total Big Bear Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last three years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. Where a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now we are staying in a 1:2 ratio like we have for the last 6 months. This is an indicator that this market will continue to have pressure to stay in a down market.
up to $800,000 Overall Summary
Market Prices in the first quarter of 2024 there was an increase in Price of $10,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2023. This was not expected. There was also a increase in price of $11,333 from 1 year ago and a decrease in price of $12,666 from 3 years ago.
Sales and Listings in the first quarter of 2024 there was a average monthly decrease in sales of 2 per month and a decrease of 62 listings per month, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. There was also a decrease of 1 Sale per month and a increase of 55 listings compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 43 sales per month and a increase of 89 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 6 months vs a normal 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices compared to the last quarter or the last year in a negative way because listings have been down the first quarter. We have lost $12,000 from the peak of prices 3 years ago. This was to be expected. But the market has had a steady increase in prices in this price range to almost make up for the losses from the peak of 3 years ago
When looking at the data of the Total Big Bear Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales will put a lot of pressure on prices to fall. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same.
Section 2 $800,000 and Up (Luxury Market)
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,157,333 was down $176,000 from the 2023 fourth quarter average monthly price of $1,333,333.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,157,333 was down $172,000 from the 2023 first quarter average monthly price of $1,329,333.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,157,333 was down $124,667 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $1,282,000.
Area Ranking The numbers below show you how the Total Big Bear Area compares to the 10 sub areas this quarter. Eagle knolls and Fawnskin didn’t have any sales in the first quarter of 2024.
Total Big Bear Area $1,157,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Castle Glen Area $1,583,667
Snow Summit Area $1,200,000
Fox Farm Area $1,188,000
Big Bear Lake Area $1,109,000
Big Bear City $1,100,000
Lake Front Area $1,087,333
Moonridge $920,000
Eagle Point/Estates $875,000
Eagle Knoll $0
Fawnskin $0
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices in a negative way with prices down $176,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are down $172,000. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are down $124,667. Until we see a change from interest rates or buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down.
Remember the possibility of wide market swings in this price range. See the first graph below “Historic Sales Price Trend $800,000+”.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range. contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 10 per month. Which was the same amount of sales per month when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 86 which is 12 per month more when compared to the 74 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2023.
1 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 10 per month. Which was a decrease of 1 sale per month when compared to the sales of 11 per month in the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 86 which is 5 per month more when compared to the 80 average number of listings for the first quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 10 per month. Which was a decrease of 14 sales per month when compared to the sales of 24 per month in the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 86 which is 13 per month more when compared to the 72 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales and listings in a negative way with sales the same and listings up 12. And when compared to to 1 year ago sales are down 1 and listings are up 5. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 14 and listings are up 13. Until we see a change from interest rates or buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market.
It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the Total Big Bear market. Where in the first quarter of 2024 the Total Big Bear Area averaged 9 Sales per month.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Total Big Bear Area, the sales to expired ratio for the last three years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. Where a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have for the last 5 out of 6 months. This is an indicator that this market will continue to have pressure to go into a declining market.
$800,000 and up Luxury Market Overall Summary
Market Prices in the first quarter of 2024 there was an decrease in Price of $176,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2023. There was also a decrease in price of $172,000 from 1 year ago and a decrease in price of $124,667 from 3 years ago.
You must remember to consider the wide price swings in the Luxury Market.
Sales and Listings in the first quarter of 2024 sales were the same and there was a increase of 12 listings per month, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. There was also a decrease of 1 Sale per month and a increase of 5 listings compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 14 sales per month and a increase of 13 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 5 out of 6 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices, sales and listings in a negative way.
When looking at the data of the Total Big Bear Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales will put a lot of pressure on prices to fall even more. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices. Until we see a change from interest rates or buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same.