Q2 Market Report - Big Bear Lake
Big Bear Lake Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear Lake Area Market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary. All graphs are using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
Table 1 Allows us to compare the Big Bear Lake area to The Big Three Areas, and the Sub Areas of Big Bear.
Graph 1 Shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Big Bear Lake Area on a monthly basis.
Graph 2 Shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Big Bear Lake Area on a annual basis.
Graph 1 When we use the information from Graph 2 and 3 we can see in this quarter the $563,000 price for June ranks Big Bear Lake Area in 4th place out of 8 different categories in average price for 6/2022. And the $60,000 price deduction from 3 months ago is 5th out of 8. But even with the loss the Big Bear Lake Area still has a Gain of $143,000 over the past 2 years which ranks it tied for 4th with Fox Farm and Fawnskin compared to the other 8 different categories.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter, but even so the Big Bear Lake area still has a good gain over the last 2 years, but I would expect this gain to be lowered over the next few quarters. . Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle and depending on the economy we will have to see how long this down cycle will last and how far prices will go down.
Graph 3 below shows us that listings are starting to go up while sales are staying as low as last quarter. This quarter we had 250 listings for the quarter with 86 sales while last year in the second quarter we had 374 listings with 153 sales. Comparing the second quarter of the last two years with the second quarter of 2020, we had 2525 listings and 82 sales. But you have to remember that is when the boom just started. As you can see we are already catching up to last year in listings but sales are staying down. If this continues it will keep pressure on prices to continue to go down.
Graph 4 In the Big Bear Lake area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the second quarter started to show our reduction in prices and sales together with a increase in listings. We knew that this was coming with the slow down in the economy and a rise in interest rates because of inflation. Compared to The Big Three we rank First in average sales price for the month of 6/2022. And rank first in Average Loss from 3/2022 to 6/2022 which means our rank in gain in price from 6/2020 to 6/2022 now comes in Second.
When we compare Moonridge to the sub areas of Big Bear we rank 4th out of five in average price for the month of 6/2022. We rank 4th in average loss from 3/2022 to 6/2022 which means our rank in gain in price from 6/2020 to 6/2022 is tied for 3rd with Fawnskin and Fox Farm.
Big Bear Lake when compared to the rest of Big Bear is doing well and with fluctuations in the graphs I expect some of the rankings to change some.. But like the rest of the Big Bear Real Estate Market expect Prices to fall, listings to increase and Sales to go down through the rest of the year.
Big Bear Lake Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
Graph 1 shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Big Bear Lake Area on a monthly basis, we can see in this quarter prices have fallen by $19,000 compared to last quarter. We went from $1,188,000 to $1,207,000.
Graph 2 shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Big Bear Lake Area on a annual basis, we can see that in the last 2 years the average price has gone up $53,000. That is when the market was in a boom cycle.
Both graphs are using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022. But you have to remember that this price range has wider price swings than the 0 - $800,000 market. By looking at the graphs you can see that we can have a month to month swing of $400,000 or more for different months. In the Big Bear Lake Area the second quarter of 2022 had a drop in average price to $1,187,000 for the month of June. Usually the Big Bear Lake Luxury prices are in the range of $1,100,000 to $1,300,000, at least that is what we have been enjoying since January of 2020.
This is why if your cabin is in this price range and you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth, you have to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Graph 3 below shows us that listings are starting to go up while sales are staying as low as last quarter. This quarter we had 235 listings for the quarter with 53 sales while last year in the second quarter we had 191 listings with 54 sales. Comparing the second quarter of the last two years with the second quarter of 2020, we had 220 listings and 11 sales. But you have to remember that is when the boom just started. As you can see we are passing last year in listings and sales are so far sales are staying the same. Look for listings to increase and sales to decrease for the rest of the year.
Graph 4 In the Lake Front area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter had a small drop in price. But I’ll say again you have to remember that this price range has wider price swings than the 0 - $800,000 market. By looking at the graphs you can see that we can have a month to month swing of $400,000 or more for different months. The nice part is that sales stayed at a good level. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is a nice market. In the 0-$800,000 market we would compare the big three areas of Big Bear Lake, The Total Big Bear Valley and Big Bear City. But in the luxury market I don’t use Big Bear City because of lack of sales in the $800,000 and up luxury market. So from what I can see the Big Bear Lake Luxury market is on par with the rest of the areas in Big Bear with steady prices and sales so far.
We now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the third quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market
Expect changes in the graphs for the third quarter and the rest of the year to better reflect the economy.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little more. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline.