Q3 Market Report - Fox Farm
Fox Farm Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Fox Farm Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas also to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fox Farm Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the two year average price monthly graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas from October 2020 to September 2022. Graph 1 below covers the Fox Farm Area. I will be using this table to analyze what is happening to the Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Fox Farm Area. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from October 2020 to September of 2022.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter but for now The Fox Farm Area has a $148,000 gain over the last 2 years. But I would expect this gain to be lowered over the next few quarters. The Fox Farm Area lost $1,000 in average price in the third quarter, which was the lowest loss for all areas and a total of $23,000 from the peak of March 2022 which was also the lowest for all areas. Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle which for most areas stopped in April of 2022.. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle. We will have to see how long this down cycle will last and the influence it has on prices.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below is for the Fox Farm Area. These stats are compiled using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 2-year period October 2020 to September of 2022.
You can see from the last 2 columns that sales have gone down by 1 this quarter compared to last quarter, and listings are up by 29. But when you look at this quarter compared to the third quarter of last year, sales are down 9 in this quarter and listings are up by 13. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales this quarter, or compared to last quarter, but are sufficiently lower when compared to a year ago. And the increase in listings have not had a big effect on price. More listings will usually cause prices to go down. But the Fox Farm Area has had the lowest price losses and steady sales even with the negative economic conditions and the increase in listings. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will also put pressure on prices to continue to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. So far the Fox Farm area is still in a strong market.
Graph 3 In the Fox Farm Area the sales to expired ratios have been good for 2 years with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But the last months we have had a ratio of 1:2 which is high but somewhat normal for a down market. But with the Fox Farm Area showing strength so far in this market this may just be an off month.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the third quarter continued with a strong market in the Fox Farm Area with a very small drop in price. It had the smallest drop in price for the Big Bear Area not only in the third quarter but also over the last two years. Also had steady sales even with the economy and an increase of listings. It also has retained the most equity over the last two years of any other area in Big Bear. This quarter we had our first sub area that actually had a loss. That was the Lake Front area with a loss of $22,000 from October 2020. For vacation homes the Fox Farm Area is in a good market. We now know that we are going to stay in this declining market for at least the next few quarters. .It will be interesting to see what happens in the Fox Farm Area.
Expect changes in the graphs for the fourth quarter to better reflect the economy.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices starting to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.
Fox Farm Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The following stats are for the Fox Farm Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas also to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the For Farm Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the three year average price annual graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas from October 2020 to September 2022. Graph 1 below covers the For Farm Area. I will be using this table to analyze what is happening to the Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from October 2020 to September of 2022. Because of the volatility of the monthly numbers, which can have a difference of $400,000 or more each month, I will be using the annual averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are changing in this price range. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Fox Farm Area if you want to look at it.
In the Fox Farm Area, so far in 2022 this area has continued with the price increase that it has been enjoying the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,080,000 brought us to $1,246,000 through the first three quarters of 2022. For an increase of $166,000. And the Fox Farm Area has a $48,000 decrease over the Total Big Bear Area. This increase in price has brought the Fox Farm Area to a ranking of 6 out of 10 areas in average price for 2022 so far. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for the Fox Farm Area have had a nice increase the last few years, but is not doing as well as the Total Big Bear Area. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range contact me, you have to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Fox Farm Area. These stats are compiled using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period October 2020 to September of 2022.
You can see from the last 2 columns that sales are down this quarter compared to last quarter by 1 and listings are up by 18. When you look at this quarter compared to the third quarter of last year sales are up by 4 in this quarter and listings are down by 32. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation haven’t affected sales compared to last quarter and the Fox Farm Area actually has more sales in this quarter compared to a year ago. So having more listings this quarter compared to last quarter keep sales and prices the same. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the whole Big Bear market. So overall this market is still in good condition.
Graph 4 In the Fox Farm Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But now in the third quarter we are have a 1:2 ratio. Which is an indicator that we are in a declining market. So far all the other indicators have shown that the Fox Farm Area is still in a good market. Maybe this is an indicator that this is about to change.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the third quarter in the Fox Farm Area prices have stayed strong which has preserved the equity build up in the cabins there for the last 3 years. Sale have stayed the same over the last two quarter and listings and expired listings have started to go up. The nice part is that sales and prices stayed at a good level. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is a good market for now. We will have to see how the influence of increased listings and expired listings affect this market.
We now know that we are headed into the possibility of a very different market. Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slowdown in the market.
Expect changes in the graphs for the fourth quarter to better reflect the economy.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little more. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline.