Q4 Market Report - Eagle Knolls

Eagle Knolls Market Trends: $800,000 And Over Price Range

The following stats are for the Eagle Knolls Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Unlike most of Big Bear, I didn’t break up the Eagle Knolls Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. Because there really isn’t any sales in this area below $800,000. I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.

Market Prices

In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. Because of this volatility I will be using the annual averages instead of the monthly averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are trending..

Because of the low amount of sales in the Eagle Knolls Area, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Eagle Knolls Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.

Table 1 (below) was created from the last three years, average annual price graph (graph 1) for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to December of 2022. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Eagle Knolls Area if you want to look at it.

In the Eagle Knolls area in 2022 it has continued with the price increase that it has been enjoying the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,162,000 brought us to $1,621,000 through 2022. For an increase of $459,000. And the Eagle Knolls area has a $341,000 higher increase over the Total Big Bear Area. These two increases have brought the Eagle Knolls Area to a ranking of 2 out of 10 areas in average price for 2022. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for Eagle Knolls have had a large increase the last few years, and is doing much better than the Total Big Bear Area and most of the sub areas overall. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.

If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Eagle Knolls area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.

Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)

Because of the low amount of sales of cabins in this price range in Eagle Knolls, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Eagle Knolls Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.

Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Eagle Knolls Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.

You can see from column 5 that sales are the same this quarter compared to last quarter and listings are down by 1. When sales and listings are compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, column 6, sales are down by one and listings are up by 1. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation haven’t affected sales or listings yet in this area. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will also put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. But overall this market is still in good condition.

Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of Sales)

Graph 4 In the Eagle knolls Area, the sales to expired ratios have been at a good level over the last 2 plus years. With sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But in the last 2 quarters we are seeing a 1:2 ratio of sales to expired listings which shows we are in a declining market that should drive prices down. Because there is so little data from this graph I would expect this ratio to change from quarter to quarter.

Summary

Because of the low amount of sales of cabins in Eagle Knolls, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Eagle Knolls Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.

With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter in the Eagle Knolls Area still has a nice increase in prices that have preserved the equity build up in the cabins there for the last 3 years. There hasn’t been a sale in this area since August. But there are also very few listings to support sales. Expired listings have gone up but here again only by 1 to 2. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is a neutral market for now.

Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.

Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.  

My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.