Q4 Market Report - Moonridge
Moonridge Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Moonridge Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Moonridge Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Moonridge area you can skip to the bottom of each price range and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the two year average price monthly graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas from January 2021 to December 2022. Graph 1 below covers the Moonridge Area monthly price average. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Moonridge Area. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from January 2021 to December of 2022.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter, for now the Moonridge Area has a $18,000 gain over the last 2 years. . I would expect this gain to decrease over the next few quarters. The Moonridge Area lost $92,000 in average price in the fourth quarter, and a total loss of $112,000 from the peak of March 2022. Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle which for most areas stopped in April of 2022.. This loss will now continue to go up because we are in a down cycle. We will have to see how long this down cycle will last and the influence it has on prices.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Moonridge area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below is for the Moonridge Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales have gone down by 3 this quarter compared to last quarter, and listings are down by 2. When you look at column 6 this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, sales are down by 3 in this quarter and listings are up by 48. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales this quarter compared to last quarter and compared to a year ago. Even with the lower sales and higher amount of listings prices have not take such a big fall. Usually in a declining market more listings will also cause prices to go down. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will put pressure on prices to continue to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. So far the Moonridge Area is doing well considering the market we are experiencing. But we may be in for a lowering of prices the next few quarters.
Graph 3 In the Moonridge Area the sales to expired ratios have been good for 2 years with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But the last few months we have approached a ratio of 1:2 which is high but somewhat normal for a down market. These numbers for the fourth quarter may be showing that the Moonridge market will be declining more in the next few quarters.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter continued with a good market for sales, With a average drop in price of $92,000 for the quarter. Also this area had steady sales even with the bad economy and an increase of listings. It also has retained equity over the last two years. But that is only $18,000. This could vanish next quarter. For vacation homes, the Moonridge Area is in a declining market. We now know that we are going to stay in this declining market for at least the next few quarters. .It will be interesting to see what happens in the Moonridge Area.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.
Moonridge Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The following stats are for the Moonridge Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Moonridge Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. Because of this volatility I will be using the annual averages instead of the monthly averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are trending..
Table 1 (below) was created from the last three years, average annual price graph (graph 1) for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to December of 2022. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Moonridge Area if you want to look at it.
In the Moonridge Area, in 2022 this area has continued with the price increase that it has been enjoying the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,062,000 brought us to $1,105,000 through 2022. For an increase of $43,000. This also gives the Moonridge Area a $175,000 lower increase over the Total Big Bear Area. This has brought the Moonridge Area to a ranking of 8 out of 10 areas in average price for 2022. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for the Moonridge Area have had a nice increase the last few years, but is not doing as well as the Total Big Bear Area and most of the sub areas. But you have to remember that up until a few years ago we really didn’t have many sales in the Moonridge Area that were $800,000 plus. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Moonridge area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Moonridge Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales are down this quarter compared to last quarter by 1 and listings are down by 10. When you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year sales are down by 10 in this quarter and listings are up by 10. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales compared to last quarter a little but there is a big decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the whole Big Bear market. So overall this market is still in good condition. But the lack in sales for December may be showing us this may not last.
Graph 4 In the Moonridge Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been good with sales and expired listings between a 1:1 and a 1:2 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. If we stay in the 1:2 ratio like we have the last 2 quarters it will be an indicator that this market will be going into a declining market..
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter in the Moonridge Area prices have stayed good which has preserved part of the equity build up in the cabins there for the last 3 years. But it ranks 8 out of 10 in price compared to the other sub areas in the Luxury Market. One more bad quarter may wipe out these gains, which stand at $43,000 now. Sale have dropped the last two quarters and listings have gone up. Which will put pressure on prices to go down in a down market. Expired listings have stayed about the same but the ratio has gone up for the expired listings the last 2 quarters which indicates that this market is getting weaker. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is the beginning of a declining market for now. We will have to see how the influence of the economy affect this market.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.