Q1 Market Report - Big Bear Lake
Big Bear Lake Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear Lake Area market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market $800,000 and up. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary.
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the whole Big Bear Lake Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Big Bear Lake Area, the first quarter of 2022 continued with price increases that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out as the average price of $434,844 in January of 2020, has brought us to an average price of $622,766 in March of 2022. A total increase of $187,000. While this is a very good increase it is behind the Total Big Bear Valley which has an increase of $214,000 and behind Big Bear City which had the best increase of $329,000. But one of the reasons that Big Bear Lake had a smaller increase in price is because the area already has the highest average price in this price range of the Big Three Areas which include Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake and Total Big Bear Valley. As of March 2022 Big Bear Lake had an average price of $622,000. Big Bear City had an average price of $555,000 and the Big Bear Valley had an average price of $533,000.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Big Bear Lake area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range of $0 - $800,000 from January 2020 to March of 2022.
The graph below shows us that one of the reasons for the increase in prices we have enjoyed the last 2 years is that the inventory of listings is down, especially from last year at this time which was a record low. This quarter we had 210 listings for the quarter with 75 sales while last year we had 281 listings with 149 sales in the first quarter. Compare the last two years with 2020 first quarter of 575 listings and you can see why the listing shortages have had such influence to the large price increases the last two years.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for the Big Bear Lake Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Big Bear Lake Area the first quarter of 2022 shows us that the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. With a 1:1 ratio this is a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter stayed strong in price increases and sales. If we had more listings we would have had more sales. For vacation homes this is very impressive market.
When we compare The Big Three areas of, Big Bear Lake, The Total Big Bear Valley area and Big Bear City. What becomes evident is that the Big Bear Lake area has the highest average price in this price range with a 3/2022 average price of $622,000. Compare this to the Total Big Bear Valley 3/22 average price at $534,000 and Big Bear City with a 3/2022 average price of 535,000.
The first quarter stayed with the over heated market, but we now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market.
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong proven marketing background.
PRICE RANGE - $800,000 and Up
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Big Bear Lake Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Big Bear Lake Area the first quarter of 2022 continued with the stable prices that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out with an average price in January of 2020, of $1,137,000 has brought us to an average price of $1,207,000 in March of 2022. For a increase of $70,000. If we take a closer look at the graph we can see that prices have averaged around $1,200,000 - $1,300,000. This is typical in this price range. If you look at the graphs for this price range for the different areas of Big Bear you will see that the average prices are around $1,100,000 to $1,200,000. But you have to remember that this price range has wider price swings than the 0 - $800,000. By looking at the graphs you can see that we can have a month to month swing of $400,000 or more at different months.
This is why if you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range, you have to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for Big Bear Lake area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
This quarter we had 159 listings and 87 sales. While last year we had 144 listings and 30 sales in the first quarter. Compare the last two years with 2020 first quarter of 206 listings and 15 sales and you can see that the luxury market has been getting stronger every year. This is partly because as prices have gone up we have had more cabins come into this price range. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2-3 sales the Big Bear Lake Area in three months.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for the Big Bear Lake Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Big Bear Lake Area the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter of 2022 stayed strong in sales. If we had more listings we would have had more sales. For vacation homes this is a very impressive market. And especially vacation homes in this price range. In the 0-$800,000 market we would compare The Big Three Areas of Big Bear Lake, The Total Big Bear Valley and Big Bear City. But in the luxury market I don’t use Big Bear City because of lack of sales in the $800,000 and up luxury market. So from what I can see the The Big Bear Lake area Luxury market is on par with the rest of the areas in Big Bear with steady prices and an increase in the amount of sales.
Given that the first quarter stayed with the over heated market we now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down. Selling in Today’s New Market.
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong proven marketing background.