Q1 Market Report - Big Bear City
Big Bear City Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear City Market into two segments - Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market $800,000 and up. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary.
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for Big Bear City on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In Big Bear City, the first quarter of 2022 continued with price increases that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out as the average price of $225,000 in January of 2020, has brought us to an average price of $555,000 in March of 2022. A total increase of $329,000. This is the best increase in Big Bear Valley. It is better than Big Bear Lake which has a $187,000 increase. And better than the Total Big Bear Valley which had an average increase of $215,000. As far as the best average price on 3/2022, Big bear Lake is the best with an average price of $622,000. Big Bear City was second at $555,000 and the Total Big Bear Valley came in at $533,000.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for Big Bear City on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range of $0 - $800,000 from January 2020 to March of 2022.
The graph below shows us that one of the reasons for the increase in prices we have enjoyed the last 2 years is that the inventory of listings is down, especially from last year at this time which was a record low. This quarter we had 167 listings for the quarter with 76 sales while last year we had 165 listings with 89 sales in the first quarter. Compare the last two years with 2020 first quarter of 319 listings and you can see why the listing shortages have had such influence to the large price increases the last two years.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for Big Bear City on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In Big Bear City the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter stayed strong in price increases and sales. If we had more listings we would have had more sales. For vacation homes this is very impressive market. In the 0-$800,000 market when we compare The Big Three Areas of, Big Bear Lake, The Total Big Bear Valley Area and Big Bear City. What becomes evident is that Big Bear City came out on top of price increases for the period with a price increase of $310,000 compared to the Total Big Bear Valley which came out second with price increases of $215,000, and Big Bear Lake at $187,000.
The first quarter stayed with the over heated market, but we now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market.
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong marketing background.
PRICE RANGE - $800,000 and Up
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for Big Bear City on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Luxury market in Big Bear City the first quarter of 2022 continued with stable prices. But there are so few Luxury sales in the Big Bear City market that it is better to use Moonridge Market Trends as a market indicator for the Big Bear City Luxury Market.
This is why if you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range, you have to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for Big Bear City on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
We had 5 sales of luxury cabins in Big Bear City last quarter compared to five in the first quarter of 2021. There are so few sales in the luxury market in Big Bear City and most of these are from the Moonridge area. It is better to use the Moonridge luxury stats.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for Big Bear City on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
There are so few sales in the luxury market in Big Bear City and most of these are from the Moonridge area. It is better to use the Moonridge luxury stats.
Summary
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong proven marketing background.