Q1 Market Report - Snow Summit
Snow Summit Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The boundaries of this area will consist of cabins on the Snow Summit side of Highway 18 from the signal at Village Dr. and Paine Rd, to the signal at Moonridge Rd.
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear Snow Summit Market into two segments - Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary.
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Snow Summit Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Snow Summit Area, the first quarter of 2022 continued with price increases that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out as the average price of $522,000 in January of 2020, has brought us to an average price of $620,000 in February of 2022. A total increase of $98,000. Which is a nice increase, but it is the lowest increase in Big Bear. When compared to the Big Three of Total Big Bear Valley coming in at an overall increase of $215,000 with a March 2022 average price of $534,000 and Big Bear Lake Area coming in at an overall increase of $187,000 with a March 2022 average price of $622,000, and Big Bear City coming in at an overall increase of $310,000 with a March 2022 average price of $535,000. While the Snow Summit Area doesn’t have as large a gain over the last few years the average price is one of the highest in Big Bear.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred in the Snow Summit Area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range of $0 - $800,000 from January 2020 to March of 2022.
The graph below shows us that one of the reasons for the increase in prices we have enjoyed the last 2 years is that the inventory of listings is down. This quarter we had 27 listings for the quarter with 6 sales while last year we had 28 listings with 14 sales in the first quarter. Compare the last two years with 2020 first quarter of 94 listings with 23 sales and you can see the difference in markets with a normal market in 2020 and a over heated market that had a listing shortage.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for the Snow Summit area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Snow Summit Area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
The Snow Summit Area is one of the few areas in Big Bear in this price range where prices didn't go up and sales went down even though there were enough listings to support more sales.
Given that the first quarter is already showing a weaker market in the Snow Summit Area and we now know that we are headed into a very different market. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong marketing background.
PRICE RANGE - $800,000 and Up
Graph 1 (below) shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Snow Summit area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000+, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Snow Summit Area the first quarter of 2022 continued with the stable prices that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out with an average price in January of 2020, of $890,000 has brought us to an average price of $1,400,000 in March of 2022. For a increase of $590,000. If we take a closer look at the graph we can see that prices have averaged around $1,100,000 - $1,300,000 This is typical in this price range. If you look at the graphs for this price range for the different areas of Big Bear you will see that the average prices are around $1,100,000 to $1,200,000. But you have to remember that this price range has wider price swings than the 0 - $800,000. By looking at the graphs you can see that we can have a month to month swing of $400,000 at different months.
This is why if you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range, you have to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Graph 2 (below) shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Snow Summit area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and over, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
The first quarter in 2022 was good for sales. We had 8 sales of luxury cabins in the Snsow Summit Area compared to 6 in the first quarter of 2021. And remember the first quarter of 2021 was a record first quarter for luxury sales in the Snow Summit Area. The amount of listings for the first quarter in 2022 was 21 compared to 31 for the first quarter in 2021. Because of this you would think sales would have gone down but instead they increased by 2.
Graph 3 (below) shows what residential real estate sales strength is occurring (Sales vs Expiring listings) for the Snow Summit area on a monthly basis using a parameter of: Price Range $800,000 and over, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
In the Snow Summit Area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the first quarter luxury market in the Snow Summit Area stayed stable in sales and price. For vacation homes in this luxury market this is a very impressive market.
Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the second quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market which should be a balance between the market of a few years ago and the one that we have had the past two years. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. But we will have sales every month and not go back to a stagnate market where we would not have sales for several months. Competition to sell and get the highest price will go back to using an experienced agent who can understand the changes that are coming in the market and has the backing of a company with a strong marketing background.