Q1 Market Report - Fawnskin
Fawnskin Area Market Trends
Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables made from three year graphs, for the Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas. Using the tables and graphs I will report the trends of Market Prices, Sales vs Active Listings, and Expired Listings and summarize what they mean to the current and future Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas Real Estate Markets. This section is for the Fawnskin Area. The following analysis is a detailed but easy to understand examination of these market trends.
The following stats have 2 sections. Section 1 up to $800,000 property value and Section 2 $800,000 and up, the Luxury Market. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Fawnskin Area, you can skip to the bottom of Section 1 and Section 2 and read the Overall Summary.
Section 1 notes: the Castle Glen, Eagle Knolls and Eagle Point/Eagle Point Estates Areas are not included in section 1 stats due to the fact that there aren’t any sales under $800,000 in these areas.
Section 2 notes: the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 and up Luxury Market.
Section 1 up to $800,000
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends Surprisingly, the 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $504,500 was down $1,000 from the 2023 fourth quarter average monthly price of $505,500.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $504,500 was up $48,000 from the 2023 first quarter average monthly price of $456,500.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $504,500 was down $50,833 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $555,333.
Area Ranking The 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $504,500 gives the Fawnskin Area a ranking of 5th highest in price out of the 7 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Fawnskin Area has a $15,500 lower average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $489,000.
Total Big Bear Area $489,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fox Farm $665,667
Moonridge Area $617,667
Big Bear Lake Area $572,667
Lake Front Area $531,333
Fawnskin Area $504,500
Big Bear City $461,667
Snow Summit Area $422,500
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices in a negative way with prices down $1,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are up $48,000. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are down $50,833. So in this price range Fawnskin is making up for the price loss from the peak 3 years ago. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down.
If you want to know what your Fawnskin cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 2 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 4 per month for the fourth quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 9 which is 4 per month less when compared to the 13 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2023.
1 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 2 per month. Which was a decrease of 1 sale per month when compared to the sales of 1 per month in the fourth quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 9 which is 2 per month more when compared to the 7 average number of listings for the first quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 2 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 4 per month in the first quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 9 which is 5 per month more when compared to the 4 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales and listings in a negative way with sales down 2 and listings down 5. And when compared to to 1 year ago sales are down 1 and listings are up 2. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 2 and listings are up 5. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Fawnskin Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings at a 1:1 Ratio. Where a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 4 out of 6 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in a declining market.
up to $800,000 Overall Summary
Market Prices in the Fawnskin Area in the first quarter of 2024 there was an decrease in Price of $1,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2023. There was an increase in price of $48,000 from a year ago and a decrease in price of $50,833 from 3 years ago.
When you compare the Sales and Listings of the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The Fawnskin Area had a average monthly decrease of 2 Sales per month. while Listings decreased by 5 per month. There was also a decrease of 1 Sale per month and a increase of 2 listings per month compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 2 sales per month and a increase of 5 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
As far as Expired Listings we have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 4 out of 6 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
When looking at the data of the Fawnskin Area we have steady prices. And like most areas of Big Bear in this price range, prices are going up some to make up for the losses after the peak 3 years ago. With sales down and listings down there isn’t a lot of pressure for prices to go up for now. The two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales might put a lot of pressure on prices to start to fall. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices.
Section 2 $800,000 and up (Luxury Market)
Because of the low amount of sales in this price range in the Fawnskin Area, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information on Market Prices, Sales (only 12 since January 2022) or Expired Listings. A better Market indicator would be the Total Big Bear Luxury Market Section 2. I posted the tables and graphs for you to look at if you want what little information is available to try and give you an idea of the Fawnskin Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin must be analyzed on it's on merit.
If you are thinking of selling a property in the Fawnskin Area in this price range contact me so I can use the Fawnskin Area information and the information from the other Big Bear Luxury Markets to give you a accurate price that your property would sell for on today’s market.
Market Prices
Remember the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 and up Luxury Market. See the first graph below “Historic Sales Price Trend $800,000+”.
If you want to know what your Fawnskin cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
$800,000 and up Luxury Overall Summary
For the Fawnskin Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales might put a lot of pressure on prices to fall even more. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same.