Q2 Market Report - Lake Front Area
The Lake Front Area is defined by the following boundaries: The lake shore, the Stanfield Cutoff, Big Bear Blvd and a line from Big Bear Blvd to the lake along Cove Dr.
Lake Front Area Market Trends
Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables made from three year graphs, for the Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas. Using the tables and graphs I will report the trends of Market Prices, Sales vs Active Listings, and Expired Listings and summarize what they mean to the current and future Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas Real Estate Markets. This section is for the Lake Front Area. The following analysis is a detailed but easy to understand examination of these market trends.
The following stats have 2 sections. Section 1 up to $800,000 property value and Section 2 $800,000 and up, the Luxury Market. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Lake Front Area, you can read the Overall Summary of both price ranges before section 1.
Section 1 notes: the Castle Glen, Eagle Knolls and Eagle Point/Eagle Point Estates Areas are not included in section 1 stats due to the fact that there aren’t any sales under $800,000 in these areas.
Section 2 notes: the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 and up Luxury Market.
Up To $800,000 Overall Summary
Market Prices in the second quarter of 2024 there was an decrease in Price of $85,000 (-7%) in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the first quarter of 2024. There was a decrease in price of $59,000 (-12%) from 1 year ago and a decrease in price of $32,000 (-18%) from 3 years ago.
Area Ranking The 2024 second quarter average monthly price of $483,000 gives the Lake Front Area a ranking of 5th highest in price out of the 7 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Lake Front Area has a $35,000 (+8%) higher average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $448,000.
Sales and Listings in the second quarter of 2024 there was a average monthly decrease in sales 1 per month and a increase of 5 listings per month, compared to the first quarter of 2024. There was also a increase of 2 Sales per month and a increase of 7 listings compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 3 sales per month and a increase of 19 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 8 out of 9 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices, sales and listings in a negative way for the quarter. Prices have gone down significantly the last quarter, and the 1 year and 3 year comparison. Sales are down and listings are up, which is one factor why the last quarter had lower prices. So overall the Lake Front Area is feeling the influence of higher rates from inflation.
When looking at the data of the Lake Front Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course interest rates and the number of listings that come on the market. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to bring sales back up to a higher level which should at least keep Prices from going down further?
$800,000 And Up Luxury Overall Summary
Market Prices in the second quarter of 2024 there was an increase in Price of $638,000 (+37%) in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the first quarter of 2024. This large amount was not expected. . There was also a decrease in price of $169,000 (-10%) from 1 year ago and a increase in price of $89,000 (+15%) from 3 years ago.
Area Ranking The 2024 second quarter average monthly price of $1,706,000 gives the Lake Front Area a ranking of 3rd highest in price out of the 10 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Lake Front Area has a $412,000 (+32%) higher average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $1,294,000.
Sales and Listings in the second quarter of 2024 the average monthly sales increased by 1 per month and a increase of 7 listings per month, compared to the first quarter of 2024. Sales were the same at 3 per month and listings were down by 1, compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 2 sales per month and a increase of 4 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 6 out of 9 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation and wide price swings have affected prices, sales and listings. Usually the Lake Front Area is among the leaders in price and would expect to see it continued in the top 3 or 4 in rankings each quarter.
When looking at the data of the Lake Front Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course interest rates and the number of listings that come on the market. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to bring sales back up to a higher level which should keep prices from going down?
$800,000 And Up Luxury Overall Summary
Market Prices in the second quarter of 2024 there was an increase in Price of $638,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the first quarter of 2024. This large amount was not expected. . There was also a decrease in price of $169,000 from 1 year ago and a increase in price of $89,000 from 3 years ago.
Area Ranking The 2024 second quarter average monthly price of $1,706,000 gives the Lake Front Area a ranking of 3rd highest in price out of the 10 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Lake Front Area has a $412,000 (+32%) higher average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $1,294,000.
Sales and Listings in the second quarter of 2024 the average monthly sales increased by 1 per month and a increase of 7 listings per month, compared to the first quarter of 2024. Sales were the same at 3 per month and listings were down by 1, compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 2 sales per month and a increase of 4 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 6 out of 9 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation and wide price swings have affected prices, sales and listings in a negative way. Usually the Lake Front Area is among the leaders in price and would expect to see a swing with prices at any quarter.
When looking at the data of the Fox Farm Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course interest rates and the number of listings that come on the market. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to keep sales at a higher level which should keep prices from going down?
Section 1 up to $800,000
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $483,000 was down $32,000 from the 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $515,000.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $483,000 was down $59,000 from the 2023 second quarter average monthly price of $542,000.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $483,000 was down $85,000 from the 2022 second quarter average monthly price of $568,000.
Area Ranking The 2024 second quarter average monthly price of $483,000 gives the Lake Front Area a ranking of 5th highest in price out of the 7 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Lake Front Area has a $35,000 higher average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $448,000.
Total Big Bear Area $448,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fox Farm $655,000
Moonridge Area $560,000
Big Bear Lake Area $513,000
Fawnskin Area $487,000
Lake Front Area $483,000
Snow Summit $482,000
Big Bear City Area $436,000
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices in a negative way with prices down $32,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are down $59,000. When compared to 3 years ago prices are down $85,000. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to keep prices from going down further?
If you want to know what your Lake Front cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 6 per month. Which was a decrease of 1 sale per month when compared to the sales of 5 per month for the first quarter of 2024. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 48 which is 5 per month more when compared to the 43 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2024.
1 Year Average The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 6 per month. Which was a increase of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 4 per month in the second quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 48 which is 7 per month more when compared to the 41 average number of listings for the second quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 6 per month. Which was a decrease of 3 sales per month when compared to the sales of 9 per month in the second quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 48 which is 19 per month more when compared to the 29 average monthly listings for the second quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales and listings in a slightly negative way with sales down 1 and listings up 5. when compared to to 1 year ago sales are up 2 and listings are up 7. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 3 and listings are up 19. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to bring sales back up to a higher level?
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Lake Front Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings at a 1:1 Ratio. Where a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 8 out of 9 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in a declining market. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to bring sales back up to a higher level which would keep expired listings down and bring us back to a 1:1 ratio?
Section 2 $800,000 And Up (Luxury Market)
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $1,706,000 was up $638,000 from the 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $1,068,000.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $1,706,000 was down $169,000 from the 2023 second quarter average monthly price of $1,875,000.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $1,706,000 was up $89,000 from the 2022 second quarter average monthly price of $1,617,000.
Area Ranking The 2024 second quarter average monthly price of $1,706,000 gives the Lake Front Area a ranking of 3rd highest in price out of the 10 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Lake Front Area has a $412,000 higher average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $1,294,000.
Eagle Knolls didn’t have any sales this quarter.
Total Big Bear Area $1,294,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fawnskin Area $2,080,000
Castle Glen Area $1,800,000
Lake Front Area $1,706,000
Fox Farm Area $1,401,000
Big Bear Lake Area $1,345,000
Snow Summit Area $1,080,000
Eagle Point/Estates $1,048,000
Big Bear City $952,000
Moonridge Area $941,000
Eagle Knolls $0
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation or a wide price swing, have affected prices in a positive way with prices up $638,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are down $169,000. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are up $89,000. But I think that this is an example of a wide price swing in this price range. Usually the Lake Front Area is among the leaders in price and would expect to see large swings in prices the next few quarters. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to keep prices from going down?
Remember the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 and up Luxury Market. See the first graph below “Historic Sales Price Trend $800,000+”.
If you want to know what your Lake Front cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 3 per month. Which is 1 more per month when compared to the sales of 2 per month for the first quarter of 2024. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 28 which is 7 per month more when compared to the 21 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2024.
1 Year Average The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 3 per month. Which was the same sales per month when compared to the sales of 3 per month in the second quarter of 2024. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 28 which is 1 less per month when compared to the 29 average number of listings for the second quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 3 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 5 per month in the second quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 28 which is 4 per month more when compared to the 24 average monthly listings for the second quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales and listings in a negative way with sales up by 1 and listings up by 7. When compared to 1 year ago sales are the same and listings are down by 1 the same. When compared to 3 years ago sales are down 2 and listings are up 4. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to keep sales at a higher level?
It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the Total Big Bear Area market. Where in the second quarter of 2024 the Lake Front Area averaged 3 Sales per month.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 6 In the Lake Front Area, the sales to expired ratio for the last three years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 6 out of 9 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in declining market. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to bring sales back up to a higher level which should lower expired listings and keep us in a 1:1 ratio?
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