Q3 Market Report - Big Bear Lake
Big Bear Lake Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Big Bear Lake Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas also to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear Lake Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the two year average price monthly graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas from October 2020 to September 2022. Graph 1 below covers the Big Bear Lake Area. I will be using this table to analyze what is happening to the Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Big Bear Lake Area. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from October 2020 to September of 2022.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter but for now The Big Bear Lake Area has a $49,000 gain over the last 2 years. But I would expect this gain to be lowered over the next few quarters. The Big Bear Lake Area lost $58,000 in average price in the third quarter and a total of $63,000 from the peak of March 2022. Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle which for most areas stopped in April of 2022.. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle. We will have to see how long this down cycle will last and the influence it has on prices.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below is for the Big Bear Lake Area. These stats are compiled using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 2-year period October 2020 to September of 2022.
You can see from the last 2 columns that sales have stayed the same this quarter compared to last quarter, and listings are up by 113. But when you look at this quarter compared to the third quarter of last year sales are down by 57 in this quarter and listings are up by 74. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales a lot this quarter compared to last quarter but sales are down from the third quarter last year and listings have gone up. More listings will cause the prices to go down as we saw in the pricing section. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will also put pressure on prices to continue to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of Sales)
Graph 3 In the Big Bear Lake Area, the sales to expired ratios have been at a good level the last two years. With sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But in the last quarter we are seeing expired listings creep up to a 1:2 ratio of sales to expired listings which shows we are in a declining market that should drive prices down.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the third quarter continued with a drop in price. But still had prices that were higher than 2 yeas ago. So we still had a gain in the equity of cabins that were purchased at least 2 years ago. This was also true for all the sub areas but one. This quarter we had our first sub area that actually had a loss. That was the Lake Front area with a loss of $22,000 from October 2020. The good news with the Big Bear Lake Area is that sales stayed level with last quarter. The bad news is like all areas listings have gone up. Which puts pressure on prices to go down. For vacation homes we are in a declining market. We now know that we are going to stay in this declining market for at least the next few quarters. .
Expect changes in the graphs for the fourth quarter to better reflect the economy.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.
Big Bear Lake Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The following stats are for the Big Bear Lake Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas also to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Big Bear Lake Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the three year average price annual graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas from October 2020 to September 2022. Graph 1 below covers the Big Bear Lake Area. I will be using this table to analyze what is happening to the Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from October 2020 to September of 2022. Because of the volatility of the monthly numbers, which can have a difference of $400,000 or more each month, I will be using the annual averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are changing in this price range. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Big Bear Lake Area if you want to look at it.
In the Big Bear Lake Area, so far in 2022 this area has continued with the price increase that it has been enjoying the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,263,000 brought us to $1,327,000 through the first three quarters of 2022. For an increase of $64,000. And the Big Bear Lake Area $33,000 higher increase over the Total Big Bear Area. These two increases have brought the Big Bear Lake Area to a ranking of 3 out of 10 areas in average price for 2022 so far. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for the Big Bear Lake Area have had a nice increase the last few years, and is doing much better than the Total Big Bear Area and most of the sub areas overall. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range contact me, you have to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Big Bear Lake Area. These stats are compiled using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period October 2020 to September of 2022.
You can see from the last 2 columns that sales are down this quarter compared to last quarter by 12 and listings are up by 50. When you look at this quarter compared to the third quarter of last year sales are down by 23 in this quarter and listings are up by 89. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation are causing sales to go down which causes more listings on the market. The more listings also cause the prices to go down as we saw in the pricing section. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to continue to decline. This will also put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. This market has always kept the same price average for the last five years. It will be interesting to see if the pressure of so many listings finally start to drive the annual average price down. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the whole Big Bear market. So overall this market is still in good condition.
Graph 4 In the Big Bear Lake Area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But now in the third quarter we are approaching a 1:2 ratio. Which is another indicator that we are in a declining market. This should get worse over the next two quarters.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the third quarter in the Big Bear Lake Area still has a small increase in prices that have preserved the equity build up in the cabins there for the last 3 years. Sale have dropped and listings and expired listings have started to go up. The nice part is that sales stayed at a good level. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is a neutral market for now. We will have to see how the influence of increased listings and expired listings affect this market.
We now know that we are headed into the possibility of a very different market. Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slowdown in the market.
Expect changes in the graphs for the fourth quarter to better reflect the economy.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little more. Cabins will be on the market a little longer. Sales will decline.