Q4 Market Report - Fawnskin
Fawnskin Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Fawnskin Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fawnskin Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Fawnskin area you can skip to the bottom of each price range and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the two year average price monthly graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. Graph 1 below covers the Fawnskin Area monthly stats. I will be using the table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Fawnskin Area. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from January 2021 to December of 2022.
There will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter but for now The Fawnskin Area has a $74,000 gain over the last 2 years. But I would expect this gain to be lowered over the next few quarters. The Fawnskin Area gained $122,000 in average price in the fourth quarter and lost a total of $172,000 from the peak of March 2022. Which is the second highest drop in The Big Bear Area. Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle which for most areas stopped in April of 2022. And I don’t expect the large gain we had in December to continue. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle. We will have to see how long this down cycle will last and the influence it has on prices.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Fawnskin area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below is for the Fawnskin Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales have stayed the same this quarter compared to last quarter, and listings are down by 2. But when you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year column 6, sales are down by 2 and listings are up by 2. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales a lot this quarter compared to last quarter. But I do expect prices to continue to drop. More listings will also cause the prices to go down as we saw in the pricing section. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will also put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market.
Graph 3 In the Fawnskin Area, the sales to expired ratios have been at a good level the last two years. With sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. So far Fawnskin has had stability in the market with sales. listings and expired listings but not price.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter had a steep gain in price for the last month in the quarter of $122,000, This large gain covered previous losses so we had a gain in the equity of cabins of $74,000 that were purchased at least 2 years ago. The good news with the Fawnskin Area is that sales stayed about the same as last quarter. The bad news is like all areas listings have gone up. Which puts pressure on prices to go down. I don’t think the price increase in December will last and expect prices to head down. For vacation homes we are in a declining market. We now know that we are going to stay in this declining market for at least the next few quarters. .
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.
Fawnskin Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The following stats are for the Fawnskin Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fawnskin Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. Because of this volatility I will be using the annual averages instead of the monthly averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are trending..
Because of the low amount of sales in this price range in the Fawnskin Area, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Fawnskin Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.
Table 1 (below) was created from the last three years, average annual price graph (graph 1) for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to December of 2022. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Fawnskin Area if you want to look at it.
In the Fawnskin area, in 2022 this area has continued with the price decreases that it has been going through the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,450,000 brought us to $1,246,000 through 2022. For an decrease of $205,000. And the Fawnskin area has a $35,000 lower increase over the Total Big Bear Area. These decreases have brought the Fawnskin Area to a ranking of 6 out of 10 areas in average price for 2022. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for Fawnskin have had a large decrease the last few years, and is not doing as well as the Total Big Bear Area and most of the sub areas overall. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Fawnskin area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Because of the low amount of sales in this price range in the Fawnskin Area, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Fawnskin Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Fawnskin Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales were down by 1 this quarter compared to last quarter and listings are up by 1. When you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, column 6 sales are down by 1 in this quarter and listings are down by 1. And there hasn’t been a sale since September. But given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to continue to decline. This will also put pressure on prices to continue to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of Sales)
Graph 4 In the Fawnskin area, the sales to expired ratios have been at a good level. With sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio for the past few quarters. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Because there is so little data from this graph I would expect this ratio to change from quarter to quarter.
Summary
Because of the low amount of sales in this price range in the Fawnskin Area, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Fawnskin Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter in the Fawnskin Area continues with the price decreases of $205,000 that it has had the last 3 years. Sales are down and expired listings have stayed about the same. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is a declining market for now. We will have to see how the influence of increased listings and expired listings affect this market.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.