Q4 Market Report - Fox Farm
Fox Farm Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Fox Farm Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fox Farm Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Fox Farm area you can skip to the bottom of each price range and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the two year average price monthly graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. Graph 1 below covers the Fox Farm Area monthly stats. I will be using the table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Fox Farm Area. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from January 2021 to December of 2022.
There will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter but for now The Fox Farm Area has a $2,000 loss over the last 2 years. But I would expect this loss to be lowered over the next few quarters. The Fox Farm Area lost $216,000 in average price in the fourth quarter, which was the highest loss for all areas and a total of $161,000 from the peak of March 2022 which was the third highest for all areas. Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle which for most areas stopped in April of 2022.. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle. We will have to see how long this down cycle will last and the influence it has on prices. It should be noted that this quarter there was a very large down turn in price where last quarter the Fox Farm area had the highest price in Big Bear. I expect next quarter or two to bring the average price up.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Fox Farm area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below is for the Fox Farm Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales have gone down by 2 this quarter compared to last quarter, and listings are down by 7. But when you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, sales are down 1 in this quarter and listings are up by 5. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales this quarter, or compared to last quarter. And the small increase in listings should not have had a big effect on price. More listings will usually cause prices to go down. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will put pressure on prices to continue to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. The Fox Farm area has now become a declining market.
Graph 3 In the Fox Farm Area the sales to expired ratios have been good for 2 years with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But the last few quarters some of the months have had a ratio of 1:2 which is high but somewhat normal for a down market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter changed to a declining market in the Fox Farm Area with a large drop in price of $216,000. It had the third highest drop in price for the Big Bear Area of $161,000 since the peak of March. These loses have wiped out the equity build up over the last two years and given the area a $2,000 loss of equity. I don’t expect these numbers to hold up for the next quarter. Prices should actually come up for this area next quarter to balance this market out. Also this area had steady sales for this year in this price range even with the economy and an increase of listings. For vacation homes the Fox Farm Area is in a declining market. We now know that we are going to stay in this declining market for at least the next few quarters. .It will be interesting to see what happens in the Fox Farm Area.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.
Fox Farm Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The following stats are for the Fox Farm Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fox Farm Market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. Because of this volatility I will be using the annual averages instead of the monthly averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are trending.
Table 1 (below) was created from the last three years, average annual price graph (graph 1) for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to December of 2022. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Fox Farm Area if you want to look at it.
In the Fox Farm Area, so far in 2022 this area has continued with the price increase that it has been enjoying the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,057,000 brought us to $1,237,000 through 2022. For an increase of $180,000. And the Fox Farm Area has a $43,000 decrease over the Total Big Bear Area. This increase in price has brought the Fox Farm Area to a ranking of 7 out of 10 areas in average price for 2022. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for the Fox Farm Area have had a nice increase the last few years, but is not doing as well as the Total Big Bear Area. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Fox Farm area contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Fox Farm Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales are down this quarter compared to last quarter by 3 and listings are down by 5. When you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year sales are down by 3 in this quarter and listings are up by 4. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have started to affect sales compared to last quarter. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. So overall this market is going into a declining market in price and sales.
Graph 4 In the Fox Farm Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But now in the third quarter we have a 1:2 ratio and the fourth quarter this ratio is higher. Which is an indicator that we are in a declining market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter in the Fox Farm Area in this price range, prices and sales have started to fall. But even with the fall we still have an equity build up in the cabins there for the last 3 years of $180,000. Sales and prices have started to drop and expired listings have started to go up. This shows us that this market is going into a declining market. We will have to see how the influence of increased listings and expired listings affect this market.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.